Global alcohol consumption is expected to decline steadily over the next decade, as shifting consumer preferences and tighter household budgets reshape demand across major drinking markets, according to new industry forecasts.
Research from alcohol market intelligence firm IWSR projects that overall volumes of beer, spirits, and wine will continue to fall through 2031 and remain below current levels well into the next decade. The report, which spans 160 markets and provides a 10-year outlook, highlights a clear downturn in established consumption regions.
Between 2024 and 2025 alone, global alcohol volumes dropped by around 2%, marking the beginning of a longer-term trend. Analysts expect some of the world’s largest markets to see the steepest declines. By 2035, consumption is forecast to fall by nearly 20% in both China and the United States. Germany is expected to record a 14% decline, while the United Kingdom may see a 13% drop. Japan is projected to experience a 15% reduction over the same period.
Despite global population growth among legal drinking-age consumers, total alcohol volumes in 2035 are expected to remain around 1% below 2025 levels. Per-capita consumption is also predicted to fall, with the average adult drinking roughly half a liter less pure alcohol annually, equivalent to about two bottles of spirits per year.
However, the picture is not uniform across all regions. Emerging markets are expected to drive growth in overall demand, offsetting declines in more mature economies. India is projected to become a key growth engine for the industry, alongside strong increases in Mexico, Vietnam, and Colombia. India alone is forecast to see a 38% rise in alcohol consumption by 2035, while Mexico and Vietnam are expected to grow by 13% and 15% respectively.
Industry analysts say the global drinks market is undergoing structural change. Marten Lodewijks, president and managing director of IWSR, said the sector is heading toward “a vastly different market landscape” over the next decade as consumer behavior continues to evolve.
Category trends also show significant divergence. Wine consumption is forecast to fall by 14% globally between 2025 and 2035, while spirits are expected to decline by 2% and beer by around 1%. Ready-to-drink beverages, however, are moving in the opposite direction, with global volumes projected to grow by 17%.
The popularity of ready-to-drink products, including premixed cocktails, continues to accelerate. IWSR data shows global RTD consumption surpassed one billion nine-litre cases in 2025, a milestone that reflects growing demand for convenience-led alcohol options.
Luke Tegner, head of consulting at IWSR, said the segment shows no sign of slowing, highlighting its role as one of the few growth areas in an otherwise contracting global market.
