The cost of sending cargo into orbit is declining at a pace that surpasses the transportation revolution sparked by steamships in the 19th century, according to new research that suggests space is rapidly becoming a commercially viable marketplace.
The study, published in PNAS Nexus by researchers from the University of Cambridge’s Bennett School of Public Policy and the Politecnico Institute of Turin, examined more than 4,400 rocket launches conducted between 1960 and 2025. The researchers said it represents the largest global dataset of space launches assembled to date.
Their analysis found that the average cost of launching one kilogram into orbit has dropped from $87,023 in 1960 to $3,868 in 2025, a decline of more than 95%.
The study also found that every time the total amount of cargo launched into space has doubled, the average launch cost per kilogram has fallen by 21.2%. Researchers said this exceeds the 15.5% cost reduction experienced in transatlantic freight shipping during the steamship revolution that followed the SS Savannah’s historic voyage in 1819. The decline is also occurring more rapidly than the well-known reduction in solar panel manufacturing costs.
Lead researcher Alessio Terzi said the pace of falling launch costs suggests the space industry could be approaching a period of significant commercial expansion.
“The cost of space launch technology is now falling faster than during one of history’s greatest transport revolutions,” Terzi said.
He noted that while steamships reduced transportation costs through explosive growth in global trade, the space sector has achieved even larger cost reductions despite operating at a much smaller scale, leaving room for further improvements.
If current trends continue, the researchers estimate the cost of launching one kilogram into low-Earth orbit could decline to around $1,600 by 2030 and approximately $300 by 2040. They added that SpaceX’s Starship rocket has the potential to reduce launch costs to about $1,000 per kilogram, making large-scale orbital projects more financially practical.
Lower launch costs are expected to create new opportunities for businesses, particularly in the United Kingdom, where about 90% of space companies generate annual revenues below £5 million. These firms develop satellites, spacecraft components and related services that become more commercially attractive as access to space becomes less expensive.
Several companies are already pursuing new business opportunities. London-based BioOrbit is exploring pharmaceutical manufacturing in low-Earth orbit, while Space Solar is working on space-based solar energy projects. NATO’s innovation fund has also invested in a British startup developing orbital manufacturing facilities.
The study found that payloads launched into orbit have increased by roughly 31% annually since 2020, compared with average annual growth of 4% between 2000 and 2019.
Researchers cautioned, however, that SpaceX currently accounts for about 75% of all payload launched into orbit, giving the company considerable influence over pricing. They warned that market concentration and geopolitical tensions could slow future cost reductions.
Despite those concerns, the researchers believe commercial activity in space is entering a new phase, with investment, trade and industrial development expected to play an increasingly important role in the global economy.
