Britain risks becoming heavily dependent on US gas imports within the next decade, prompting renewed calls for increased North Sea production to safeguard energy security. New analysis from consultancy Wood Mackenzie predicts that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States could supply roughly 60% of the UK’s gas by 2035, a sharp rise from about 10% in 2024.
The forecast comes amid heightened geopolitical tension and volatility in global energy markets, underscoring the risks of relying on a single external supplier. Britain’s domestic gas output has been in decline for decades, with North Sea production now at its lowest level since the early 1970s. Falling local supply has forced the country to import more gas, including pipeline deliveries from Norway and LNG shipments from overseas.
In 2024, around 43% of UK gas came from domestic sources, a similar share from Norway, and the remaining share from LNG, mostly sourced from the United States. Wood Mackenzie projects that as domestic output continues to drop faster than demand grows, this balance will shift dramatically toward imports.
Gail Anderson, research director at Wood Mackenzie, said the UK should pursue a broad energy strategy combining renewable power with domestic hydrocarbons and emerging technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen. “Reducing dependence on LNG imports should be a priority,” she said, particularly given geopolitical uncertainties affecting energy flows. Anderson added that gas from the UK continental shelf has a lower carbon footprint than transatlantic LNG and can be supplied at a lower short-term cost.
The analysis is likely to intensify debate within government over the future of North Sea production. Industry groups have warned that declining output is exacerbated by tax policies and restrictions on new exploration licences, limiting the UK’s ability to fully utilise domestic resources.
The government, however, maintains that expanding fossil fuel extraction is not the solution to long-term energy security or price stability. A spokesperson said the focus remains on maintaining current production while accelerating investment in renewable energy and reducing reliance on volatile international markets. Analysts note that increasing North Sea output would have only a modest effect on consumer prices, which are largely set by global supply and demand.
Recent developments in the Middle East, including conflict that has disrupted key shipping routes, have reinforced the strategic importance of secure and diversified energy supplies. The UK faces the challenge of balancing short-term security with long-term decarbonisation targets, ensuring the energy system remains reliable, affordable, and sustainable.
Wood Mackenzie’s report warns that without intervention, the UK’s reliance on imported gas, particularly from the United States, will continue to rise, heightening exposure to market shocks and geopolitical instability. Policymakers will need to weigh the trade-offs between boosting domestic production, managing costs, and advancing the transition to net zero.
