UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as World Cup and Heatwave Boost Activity

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The UK economy grew by 0.4% in July, beating expectations of no growth as businesses benefited from increased activity linked to the World Cup and record summer temperatures, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The monthly increase in gross domestic product followed growth of 0.3% in June, while output was unchanged in May. The latest figures showed that the economy continued to expand despite concerns over weak business activity and the wider economic impact of the conflict involving Iran.

Services were the main driver of growth in July, with output rising by 0.4%. Service industries accounted for about 81% of UK economic output during the final three months of 2025, according to the House of Commons Library.

Production output increased by 0.2% in July, while construction output rose by 0.1%.

On the three-month measure used by the ONS to assess underlying trends, GDP expanded by 0.4% in the three months to July, matching growth recorded in the three months to June.

The latest figures follow a relatively strong first half of the year. The Resolution Foundation said the UK was the fastest-growing economy among the Group of Seven during the first half, with GDP rising by 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second quarter.

The think tank said the combined 1% growth during the first six months left the economy 0.4% larger than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March. However, it warned that the economic effects of the Iran conflict could offset some of that improvement.

The World Cup provided a boost to several sectors as the tournament entered its later stages in July. The ONS said hospitality businesses in particular reported higher sales linked to matches.

The tournament had also affected activity in June, with businesses in alcohol manufacturing, wholesale, food and drink services, publishing, television production and advertising reporting increased turnover.

Record temperatures also influenced economic activity. The ONS said businesses in manufacturing, retail, accommodation, entertainment and recreation had reported positive effects from the hot weather, although construction and education were among sectors affected negatively.

Provisional Met Office figures showed that the average temperature across June, July and August reached 16.5C, making it the hottest UK summer in records dating back to 1884. The figure was 1.9C above the 1991-2020 average and exceeded the previous record of 16.1C set in 2025.

Separate analysis by the Verdant think tank estimated that repeated heatwaves had reduced UK output by £4.4bn by the end of July, citing lower worker productivity and equipment shutdowns.

The ONS is due to publish its next monthly GDP estimate on October 15.

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