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UK House Prices Rise Amid Regional Divide, with Modest Increases Expected in 2025

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House prices across the UK have risen over the past year, with every region seeing an increase in average property prices, according to new data from property search website Zoopla. Over the past 12 months, prices have climbed by 1.5%, and experts forecast further growth in 2025, although recent budget changes may exert some dampening effects.

The rise in prices has not been uniform, with a clear north-south divide emerging. Northern regions, which are generally more affordable, have seen sharper price increases compared to areas around London, where housing prices are higher and more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. For example, in Northern Ireland, house prices have surged by 6.3% from last year, while the southeast of England has experienced a modest increase of just 0.3%.

Looking ahead, Zoopla forecasts a 2.5% increase in house prices for 2025, in line with expectations from other industry analysts. Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, highlighted that stronger-than-expected income growth this year, coupled with a retreat in mortgage rates, has improved affordability for potential buyers.

Additionally, Donnell predicts that 2025 will see 1.15 million housing transactions, marking a 5% increase compared to this year. However, affordability pressures are expected to persist, particularly in London and the southeast, where markets are likely to continue lagging behind their northern counterparts.

Despite the overall positive outlook, Donnell noted that his forecasts would have been more optimistic if not for the upcoming “budget changes,” which he believes will likely act as a drag on price inflation. Starting in April 2025, buyers will face higher stamp duty rates, particularly affecting those in higher price brackets. Zoopla estimates that approximately half of today’s buyers pay stamp duty, but this figure is set to rise to over 80% next spring. For first-time buyers, the proportion expected to pay stamp duty is likely to double to 40%.

Zoopla’s data also shows that the housing market is more active than usual as buyers rush to complete transactions before these tax changes come into effect. The number of sales agreed is 19% higher than this time last year, and buyer demand has increased by 25%.

As the market heads into 2025, experts suggest that while house prices will continue to rise, affordability challenges remain, especially in the south of England, where higher costs may deter some buyers. The impact of the upcoming stamp duty changes will likely shape the market as the year progresses.

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OECD Upgrades UK Growth Forecast, But Warns of Rising Debt and Inflation

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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK, crediting the government’s £70 billion-a-year public spending package spearheaded by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The OECD now expects the UK economy to grow by 0.9% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, significantly higher than its previous May forecasts of 0.4% and 1.0%.

However, the Paris-based organisation has cautioned that this growth is accompanied by rising public debt and persistent inflation. The UK’s upgrade contrasts with downgrades for France, Germany, and Italy, which are facing stagnation in the eurozone’s largest economies.

The OECD acknowledged that the UK’s growth is largely driven by an unprecedented increase in government expenditure, a strategy that has pushed the country’s debt to unsustainable levels. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 100% in the coming years. While the fiscal stimulus has provided a boost to growth, the OECD warned that it would keep inflation above the Bank of England’s 2% target for the next two years. This is primarily due to wage pressures and high public spending. Although interest rates are expected to fall to 3.5% by early 2026, monetary policy may remain tight for longer to address persistent price pressures.

Another concern raised by the OECD is the UK’s shrinking labour force, which has seen one of the largest post-pandemic contractions in workforce participation among OECD nations, second only to Costa Rica. The organisation called for reforms to the benefits system and increased childcare support to help encourage more people, particularly women, to return to work.

While Reeves welcomed the growth forecast upgrade, highlighting the UK as the fastest-growing European economy in the G7 over the next three years, the OECD emphasized the importance of balancing fiscal stimulus with sustainable debt management.

The Chancellor’s maiden Budget, funded by £40 billion in tax hikes and borrowing, also includes commitments to reform planning laws, improve childcare support, and overhaul welfare systems to boost productivity and living standards. However, critics have raised concerns about the long-term consequences of higher borrowing costs and structural deficits, which could potentially overshadow these short-term gains.

As the UK’s economy continues to recover, the OECD’s report serves as a reminder of the trade-offs between fiscal stimulus and long-term financial stability.

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BAE Systems to Recruit Record 2,400 Apprentices and Graduates in 2024

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BAE Systems, the UK’s largest defense company, has announced plans to recruit a record 2,400 apprentices, undergraduates, and graduates next year, marking a major step in its commitment to workforce development. This new intake will bring the total number of trainees across the FTSE 100 company to 6,500, making up around 15% of its UK workforce.

Known for building the UK’s nuclear submarines and fighter jets, BAE Systems currently employs 100,000 people worldwide. The company has increased its investment in skills development each year since the Covid-19 pandemic, with next year’s £230 million spend on education initiatives pushing its total investment in training to over £1 billion since 2020.

The funding will support a range of programs, including apprenticeships, graduate schemes, and upskilling opportunities for current staff. Additionally, BAE will continue backing outreach efforts, such as its third skills academy, which recently opened in Glasgow.

Charles Woodburn, CEO of BAE Systems, emphasized the importance of investing in talent to maintain the company’s competitive edge. “With thousands of roles open across the country and our exciting high-technology programs, there has never been a better time to embark on a career with us,” he said.

The company’s recruitment drive has garnered praise from government officials, with Defense Secretary John Healey calling BAE’s early careers initiatives crucial for strengthening national security and nurturing future industrial leaders. “This investment is a vote of confidence in the UK as a hub for highly skilled jobs and cutting-edge employment,” Healey remarked.

Diversity continues to be a priority for BAE Systems. Nearly a third of this year’s new apprentices are women, and one in three new graduates comes from an ethnic minority background. Francesca Di Mascio, 27, an electrical engineering apprentice at BAE, shared her experience: “This apprenticeship is a great opportunity to earn while you learn. For the first time, I feel truly valued in a business.”

BAE’s recruitment plans reflect a strong commitment to building a skilled and diverse workforce capable of meeting the evolving demands of the UK’s defense sector and beyond. The company’s investment in training aims to ensure that the next generation of workers is ready to tackle the challenges posed by high-tech defense and engineering fields.

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Young Professionals Leaving UK for Southern Europe, Revolut Co-Founder Warns

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Young professionals are increasingly choosing to leave the UK for sunnier climates and more favorable tax regimes in Southern Europe, according to Vlad Yatsenko, the billionaire co-founder of digital banking giant Revolut. This trend, he warns, could undermine Britain’s position as a global hub for talent, particularly in the competitive fintech sector.

Yatsenko, who co-founded Revolut in 2015, noted that many of the company’s employees are now using remote work options to relocate abroad. “The UK competes with Southern Europe now,” he said, adding that younger professionals who once flocked to London for career opportunities are now drawn to countries like Portugal and Italy, attracted by lower taxes, better financial incentives, and a desirable lifestyle.

Portugal, in particular, has become a hotspot for start-ups, with tax breaks designed to attract foreign talent and retain its own young workforce. Italy, meanwhile, has seen a surge in early-stage tech investments, with funding reaching $2 billion (£1.8 billion) in 2023. These developments have made Southern Europe an increasingly attractive alternative to the UK.

Yatsenko, originally from Ukraine and now based in London, urged the UK government to take proactive steps to retain talent. He pointed out that rival countries are creating environments that make it easier for professionals to thrive, warning that the UK could lose its competitive edge if it doesn’t respond to these challenges.

Despite his concerns, Yatsenko acknowledged that the UK remains an important market for fintech businesses. Revolut, headquartered in Canary Wharf, employs over 10,000 people globally and allows staff to work remotely or in a hybrid capacity, making it easier for employees to consider relocating without sacrificing their careers.

The exodus of talent is not limited to Revolut but reflects broader trends in the UK’s tech and finance sectors. Start-up founders have expressed concern that policy changes, such as the recent increase in capital gains tax, could discourage entrepreneurship and exacerbate the talent drain.

Revolut itself has been thriving, with plans to expand its offerings by introducing fully digital mortgages. The company’s growth, including a recent $45 billion valuation and over 50 million customers worldwide, underscores its success in adapting to the changing work environment.

However, as more professionals seek out opportunities abroad, the UK faces an urgent need to reassess its policies. Tax incentives in Portugal and Italy, along with their attractive lifestyles, are drawing young professionals away from the UK. The government’s ability to create a competitive environment will be key in retaining the talent needed to maintain the country’s status as a leader in innovation.

Yatsenko’s comments highlight the broader challenges facing the UK’s future as a talent hub, emphasizing the need for the government to act to ensure the UK remains a top destination for professionals and entrepreneurs.

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