UK House Prices Rise Amid Regional Divide, with Modest Increases Expected in 2025

House prices across the UK have risen over the past year, with every region seeing an increase in average property prices, according to new data from property search website Zoopla. Over the past 12 months, prices have climbed by 1.5%, and experts forecast further growth in 2025, although recent budget changes may exert some dampening effects.

The rise in prices has not been uniform, with a clear north-south divide emerging. Northern regions, which are generally more affordable, have seen sharper price increases compared to areas around London, where housing prices are higher and more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. For example, in Northern Ireland, house prices have surged by 6.3% from last year, while the southeast of England has experienced a modest increase of just 0.3%.

Looking ahead, Zoopla forecasts a 2.5% increase in house prices for 2025, in line with expectations from other industry analysts. Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, highlighted that stronger-than-expected income growth this year, coupled with a retreat in mortgage rates, has improved affordability for potential buyers.

Additionally, Donnell predicts that 2025 will see 1.15 million housing transactions, marking a 5% increase compared to this year. However, affordability pressures are expected to persist, particularly in London and the southeast, where markets are likely to continue lagging behind their northern counterparts.

Despite the overall positive outlook, Donnell noted that his forecasts would have been more optimistic if not for the upcoming “budget changes,” which he believes will likely act as a drag on price inflation. Starting in April 2025, buyers will face higher stamp duty rates, particularly affecting those in higher price brackets. Zoopla estimates that approximately half of today’s buyers pay stamp duty, but this figure is set to rise to over 80% next spring. For first-time buyers, the proportion expected to pay stamp duty is likely to double to 40%.

Zoopla’s data also shows that the housing market is more active than usual as buyers rush to complete transactions before these tax changes come into effect. The number of sales agreed is 19% higher than this time last year, and buyer demand has increased by 25%.

As the market heads into 2025, experts suggest that while house prices will continue to rise, affordability challenges remain, especially in the south of England, where higher costs may deter some buyers. The impact of the upcoming stamp duty changes will likely shape the market as the year progresses.