Trump’s 2024 Victory: A Comeback, But Not a Landslide

Donald Trump is celebrating a remarkable political comeback, winning the 2024 presidential election after a tumultuous period following his attempt to overturn the 2020 results. As president-elect, Trump is poised to reshape the U.S. government, capitalizing on a rightward shift in the election results and the possibility of Republican control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

While Trump will likely tout his victory as a landslide, the reality of the 2024 election results tells a more nuanced story. As of Saturday, Trump leads the popular vote with over 74 million votes, though millions of ballots remain uncounted in key states like California, Washington, and Utah. The final tally may not be known until December. Notably, Trump received just over 74 million votes in 2020, highlighting some voter apathy in this cycle, as turnout has yet to match the record-setting levels seen in the last presidential election.

Despite this, the University of Florida Election Lab projects that voter turnout in 2024 will reach 62.3% of the eligible population, a drop from the 66.4% turnout in 2020 but still higher than in past elections. In comparison, turnout in the 1996 and 2000 elections was just above 50%.

In terms of the Electoral College, Trump is on track to secure 312 electoral votes if he maintains his lead in Arizona. While this is a solid victory, it is not an overwhelming mandate. His projected total is lower than previous presidential elections, including his own in 2016 and Joe Biden’s 2020 win, where both secured 306 electoral votes. Trump’s projected 312 electoral votes would also fall short of Barack Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012, when he garnered 365 and 332 votes, respectively.

Looking back at historic landslides, Bill Clinton’s 1996 win with 379 electoral votes and Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide with 525 electoral votes remain unmatched in recent history. In the 1960s and 1970s, both Richard Nixon and Lyndon B. Johnson enjoyed more than 60% of the popular vote in their reelections, a feat unthinkable in today’s polarized political environment.

Trump’s win marks the third consecutive presidential election where voters have rejected the incumbent party, a phenomenon not seen since the late 1800s. If Republicans do gain control of the House, Trump will have the opportunity to push forward his agenda. However, with the 22nd Amendment limiting him to two terms, the 2026 midterm elections will provide voters with a chance to weigh in on his administration’s effectiveness and decisions.

While Trump’s 2024 victory is significant, the future of his presidency will be shaped by how he navigates political challenges and maintains support in the years ahead.