Olive Oil Production Set to Surge, Promising Lower Prices for UK Consumers

The long-awaited end of prolonged drought conditions is expected to significantly increase olive oil production, with estimates suggesting a remarkable 77% boost this season, resulting in around 1 million metric tonnes of olive oil. This surge offers relief to UK shoppers who have faced soaring prices for the staple cooking oil over the past two years.

Gary Lewis, a representative of KTC Edibles, a leading UK oil supplier, anticipates a substantial decrease in olive oil prices, projecting a drop of 40-50%. “Prices could return to late 2022 levels, falling from €10,000 (£8,365) per tonne to €4,000-€5,000 per tonne,” Lewis stated, indicating a hopeful outlook for consumers.

Shoppers in the UK can expect to see the effects of this increased production reflected in their grocery bills soon, with the full impact likely to be felt by the first quarter of 2024. However, the market remains cautious until the olives are harvested and processed, ensuring that the projected figures come to fruition.

This summer, the price of olive oil in British supermarkets reached alarming heights, with a 500ml bottle averaging £7.89 in August and September, as reported by market analyst Assosia. Recently, there has been a slight reduction, with average prices now at £7.52, as brands such as Napolina and Filippo Berio begin to lower their prices in response to the anticipated increase in supply.

Kyle Holland, an analyst at Expana, noted that other significant olive oil-producing countries, including Greece, Turkey, and Tunisia, are also expected to see improved harvests this season. Greece, for instance, is projected to produce 230,000 metric tonnes of olive oil, a significant increase from 130,000 last year. Meanwhile, Turkey and Tunisia are forecasting substantial production gains as well.

As the olive harvest progresses from late October to February, experts agree that the anticipated increase in supply will likely continue to drive prices down, providing much-needed respite for consumers. This decrease comes after years of high costs exacerbated by extreme heatwaves and droughts that have plagued olive-growing regions.

With these promising developments, UK consumers can look forward to more affordable olive oil prices in the near future, offering a welcome relief to those who have felt the strain of rising costs.