New Polls Show Tight Race Between Harris and Trump in Arizona and Nevada

Recent CNN polls conducted by SSRS reveal a near-even contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the crucial battleground states of Arizona and Nevada as the race for the White House intensifies. The findings come as many voters have already cast their ballots, leaving fewer undecided individuals.

In Arizona, the poll indicates that Harris has garnered 48% support among likely voters, while Trump follows closely at 47%. Meanwhile, in Nevada, Trump holds a slight lead with 48%, compared to Harris’s 47%. These one-point margins fall within each poll’s margin of sampling error, indicating a highly competitive race in both states.

Voter sentiment appears largely fixed, with many expressing a preference for one candidate over the other on key issues. However, neither candidate has succeeded in convincing a substantial portion of voters that they are the superior choice. Both candidates received only narrow endorsements regarding their perceived care for people like them and commitment to prioritizing the nation’s interests above their own.

While the Nevada poll shows little change since late August, new results from Arizona suggest a positive shift for Harris. The poll reveals that she has gained ground among core Democratic demographics, including women, Latino voters, and younger voters. In Arizona, Harris enjoys a notable 16-point lead among women, while Trump maintains a 14-point lead among men. In Nevada, her support among women is tighter at 51% to Trump’s 46%, driven largely by a more significant gender gap among White voters.

In terms of support from Hispanic voters in Nevada, the candidates are nearly tied, with 48% backing Harris and 47% supporting Trump. However, Harris holds a significant advantage among voters under 35, capturing 53% compared to Trump’s 39%.

Independent voters in both states are divided, with slight shifts noted since August. In Arizona, Trump leads with 45% to Harris’s 43%, while in Nevada, the support is more balanced at 46% for Harris and 43% for Trump.

In the Senate races, Democrats appear to have the upper hand, with Arizona’s Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 51% to 43%, and Nevada’s Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen holding a 50% to 41% advantage over Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Furthermore, a proposed measure in Arizona to establish a constitutional right to abortion has garnered substantial support, with 60% of likely voters in favor.

Early voting data shows robust participation, with 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada reporting they have already cast their ballots. Notably, registered Republicans have outpaced Democrats in early voting, but Harris maintains an advantage among those early voters in Arizona (53% support) while Trump leads in Nevada (52% support).

Despite both candidates ramping up campaign efforts, over 90% of voters in both states report being committed to their choice. While issues and leadership traits are both significant factors in voters’ decisions, 53% of likely voters in Nevada and 52% in Arizona prioritize candidates’ positions on key issues over leadership qualities.

Confidence in the electoral process has improved since August, with 81% of likely voters in Nevada and 76% in Arizona expressing at least some confidence in the accuracy of ballot casting and counting. However, trust remains significantly lower among Republican-aligned voters compared to their Democratic counterparts.

These polls were conducted from October 21 to 26, 2024, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for Arizona and 4.6 percentage points for Nevada among likely voters.