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Chancellor Rachel Reeves Calls for “Reset” in UK-EU Economic Relationship

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to propose a “reset” in the United Kingdom’s economic relationship with the European Union, urging for closer ties that would facilitate smoother trade and bolster economic growth on both sides. In a historic speech, Reeves will be the first British chancellor to address the Eurogroup since Brexit, emphasizing that while the UK is not seeking to rejoin the EU’s single market or customs union, forging a “mature, business-like relationship” is in the shared interest of both parties.

In her address to European finance ministers in Brussels, Reeves will acknowledge the challenges of recent years, asserting, “Division and chaos defined the last government’s approach to Europe. It will not define ours.” The chancellor will stress Labour’s commitment to respecting the UK’s decision to leave the EU structures but will highlight practical measures to ease trade barriers, such as reducing paperwork, alleviating export obstacles, and exploring a veterinary agreement to streamline food and agricultural trade.

Reeves’s call for greater alignment with the EU comes as UK exporters continue to face significant challenges following Brexit, particularly around the increased regulatory burdens and paperwork. This has been compounded by broader global trade risks, including President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on imported goods. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has echoed Reeves’s concerns, warning that UK firms “struggling under huge regulatory and paperwork burdens” need smoother export processes to thrive.

However, Reeves’s push for closer economic ties with the EU may face political opposition. The Conservative Party has criticized her focus on Europe, calling for a greater emphasis on securing a transatlantic trade deal with the incoming US administration. Meanwhile, the EU could seek its own concessions, such as better opportunities for young Europeans to live and work in the UK, which Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has previously opposed.

Reeves’s stance aligns with recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who has also advocated for rebuilding relations with the EU. Analysts have warned that rising protectionism in the US could threaten European exports, making constructive UK-EU engagement increasingly important. Carsten Brzeski, global head of ING Research, noted that potential US tariffs could harm Europe’s growth prospects, highlighting the need for strengthened cooperation between the UK and the EU.

By promoting a collaborative approach, Reeves aims to reassure businesses and investors that Britain’s economic future will be shaped by cooperation, not isolation. In doing so, she hopes to position the UK as a resilient, forward-looking player in the global economy amid uncertain trading conditions.

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UK Car Manufacturing Sees Sharp Decline in November, Hits Lowest Levels Since 1980

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UK car manufacturing experienced a dramatic drop in November, with production falling nearly a third compared to the same month last year. New figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed that just 64,216 cars were produced in November 2024, marking a 27,711-unit decline from November 2023. This represents the ninth consecutive monthly decline, reaching the lowest output for November since 1980.

Of the cars produced, fewer than a third (19,165) were either battery electric or hybrid vehicles, with the sector recording a sharp 45.5% year-on-year slump. The overall decline in production mirrors the challenges the UK automotive industry faced in the early 1980s, a period marked by industrial unrest and the dominance of Ford models such as the Escort Mk3, Sierra, and Cortina.

The SMMT’s chief executive, Mike Hawes, acknowledged that while some decline was expected due to ongoing transformations at many plants, manufacturers are facing significant pressures both domestically and internationally. “Billions of pounds are being poured into new technologies, models, and production tooling, but the challenges are formidable,” Hawes said.

The data highlights a growing imbalance in demand. Output for the domestic market fell by more than half, while export production shrank by 21.3%. The total car production for the year so far stands at approximately 734,500 vehicles, a reduction of 108,790 compared to the same point in 2023, and only half of the 2019 levels.

The situation has been exacerbated by recent policy decisions. Stellantis, the parent company of Vauxhall, has announced the closure of its van-making plant in Luton, putting up to 1,100 jobs at risk. Stellantis has partly blamed the closure on the UK’s stringent zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales targets, which require manufacturers to meet ambitious annual goals or face substantial fines.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has acknowledged the industry’s concerns and pledged to review the ZEV mandate, with a government response expected in January. The SMMT has called for swift action, emphasizing the need for incentives to stimulate the domestic electric vehicle market, increased investment in charging infrastructure, and a clearer industrial and trade strategy.

The industry body stressed that immediate and decisive action is necessary to secure the future of the UK automotive sector. “Connecting a thriving local market with robust local production is essential for the sector’s revival,” the SMMT said.

As the UK car industry grapples with technological shifts, changing consumer behavior, and ongoing policy uncertainty, November’s figures underscore the turbulence reshaping the sector.

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Sir Keir Starmer Appoints Lord Mandelson as UK Ambassador to the US

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Sir Keir Starmer is set to appoint Lord Mandelson as the United Kingdom’s next ambassador to the United States, marking the first political appointment to the role in nearly 50 years. This move is seen as a strategic decision aimed at strengthening UK-US relations, especially during a period of uncertainty with the incoming Trump administration.

Lord Mandelson, a seasoned Labour figure and former Business Secretary, has extensive experience in trade and diplomacy, notably serving as the EU’s Trade Commissioner under Tony Blair. His appointment, expected to be confirmed soon, comes at a time when tensions between the UK and US are rising. Incoming President Donald Trump has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on foreign imports, potentially complicating trade relations between the two countries.

With Trump’s allies suggesting that the UK may have to choose between aligning with the US or the European Union, Sir Keir has dismissed this binary choice. “We must find a way to have our cake and eat it,” Mandelson remarked previously, stressing the need for Britain to navigate its ties with both the EU and the US without being forced into an either/or situation.

Mandelson’s political comeback is notable, having not held a government position since 2007. His close ties to Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and support from Foreign Secretary David Lammy, have made him a strong contender for the role. One source described his appointment as a sign of how seriously Starmer takes UK-US relations, particularly as the UK braces for potential economic fallout from Trump’s proposed tariffs.

The current UK ambassador to the US, Dame Karen Pierce, will remain in her post until the end of January when Trump is inaugurated. Pierce, who has established significant Republican contacts, played a key role in facilitating a meeting between Trump, Starmer, and Lammy in November.

Mandelson’s appointment follows speculation about potential candidates for the role, including David Miliband and Baroness Amos. Sir Keir is eager to build strong ties with the Trump administration, with McSweeney recently meeting with key Trump strategist Susie Wiles in the US.

However, tensions persist, particularly following accusations during the US election campaign that Labour had interfered in the race. Despite these disagreements, Trump has expressed admiration for Starmer, calling him a “very nice guy” who was “very popular” ahead of the election.

With Brexit and Trump’s tariff threats looming large, Mandelson’s diplomatic skills will be crucial in ensuring the UK’s interests are well-represented in Washington. The EU is expected to retaliate with its own trade measures if tariffs are imposed, but experts suggest the UK’s resilience may lie in its export of services, which make up two-thirds of its £188 billion annual exports to the US. By appointing Mandelson, Starmer signals a commitment to navigating the complexities of global trade with expertise and diplomacy.

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UK Economy Faces Stagnation as Tax Hikes Hit Business Confidence, Warns Bank of England

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The Bank of England has warned that the UK economy is likely to see no growth following the Chancellor’s recent Budget, as businesses react to record tax increases by raising prices and reducing staffing levels. Policymakers now expect the economy to flatline in the final quarter of 2024, a downgrade from their earlier forecast of 0.3% growth. This follows concerning figures that showed a contraction in output in October, raising fears of a looming recession.

While the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates at 4.75% on Thursday, Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged the uncertain outlook. He stressed that the Bank cannot commit to future rate cuts at this stage due to ongoing uncertainties stemming from the Budget’s measures.

Analysts have cautioned that both households and businesses may face continued cost pressures into 2025, with inflation remaining persistent despite subdued economic growth. A recent Bank of England survey found that an increasing number of households expect economic stagnation to become the norm. “There was a common view that the UK was moving from a cost-of-living crisis to a prolonged period of higher costs and lower living standards,” the report stated.

Businesses have reacted to the Chancellor’s decision to raise employers’ National Insurance contributions by £25bn, a move that is expected to keep inflation elevated for longer. Many companies have opted to increase prices instead of reducing wages, while also scaling back on recruitment and working hours to cope with rising costs.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged that improving living standards “will take some time” and “won’t be fixed by Christmas.” Chancellor Jeremy Hunt defended the Government’s approach, claiming that low-income families are already feeling the benefits of recent measures. However, the Bank’s survey painted a more cautious picture, with many households feeling that official commentary on economic recovery did not align with their lived experience of high day-to-day costs.

The Bank of England noted that the National Insurance hike is “weighing heavily on sentiment” among businesses, dampening their optimism about a swift economic recovery. Consumer concerns have also extended to the housing market, where the Bank observed that many buyers are now reluctant to make significant financial commitments.

Economists at Citi warned that price increases planned for next year could keep inflation stubbornly high, while analysts at HSBC suggested that the UK could be drifting towards stagflation, justifying higher interest rates even if growth slows and unemployment rises.

Minutes from the MPC’s latest meeting revealed differing views among policymakers on the long-term effects of the Budget. While three members supported an immediate rate cut, the majority, including Governor Bailey, remained cautious, noting that inflationary pressures are still too uncertain to allow a quick policy shift. Market expectations are now leaning towards a possible rate cut in February, although Mr. Bailey emphasized that any reduction in borrowing costs would be gradual to ensure the 2% inflation target is met.

Businesses have expressed surprise at the scale of the National Insurance rise, particularly the reduction in the threshold at which employers must start paying. Many expect the increase to drive up labour costs, especially in sectors that rely on part-time or lower-paid staff. In response, some companies are considering investing in automation or relocating operations abroad to mitigate rising costs and maintain competitiveness.

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