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British Firms Optimistic About 2025, Expecting Revenue Growth and Increased Hiring

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British companies are showing increased optimism for the start of 2025, with new surveys suggesting that many expect higher turnover and increased hiring, providing a boost to Labour’s goal of rejuvenating the country’s sluggish economic growth.

Surveys conducted by Lloyds and KPMG reveal that 70% of firms are anticipating revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025. This marks an improvement in sentiment compared to the same period last year. Lloyds, which polled 1,200 companies, found that nearly three-quarters of respondents are projecting higher profits over the next 12 months. Of those, one in five expects revenues to increase by more than 10%, while a quarter forecast a rise of between 6% and 10%.

The financial services sector is also displaying confidence, with two-thirds of the 160 financial leaders surveyed by KPMG expressing optimism about the government’s new financial services strategy. Despite challenges such as the looming increase in employers’ national insurance contributions from April, the sector is bullish on Labour’s plans to boost competitiveness and attract foreign investment. “Financial services is the backbone of the UK economy,” said Karim Haji, global and UK head of financial services at KPMG. Haji also noted that half of the firms surveyed plan to recruit more staff in 2025.

However, some hurdles remain. A quarter of respondents to the KPMG survey cited higher national insurance costs as a potential barrier to hiring, while a third warned that difficulties in finding skilled candidates could also impede expansion.

Despite these positive forecasts, official data showed that the UK’s economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2024 after a strong start to the year, as concerns over high interest rates and global uncertainties continue to weigh on growth. Still, many economists predict that the UK will avoid a recession, with anticipated interest rate cuts next year and increased government spending in healthcare and local government. Traders are forecasting four cuts to the Bank of England’s base rate, potentially reducing it to 3.75%, which would ease borrowing costs for businesses.

In contrast to the optimism seen in the Lloyds and KPMG surveys, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported that its members’ growth expectations for early 2025 remain at their lowest point since November 2022, citing ongoing uncertainty.

Despite these mixed outlooks, a fifth of the firms surveyed by Lloyds plan to hire new staff and invest in AI or digital tools, while a quarter aim to raise wages and upskill existing employees. Haji emphasized that further clarity on the government’s competitiveness strategy in 2025 will be key for financial services firms to effectively plan and attract foreign capital.

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Britain’s Presence at CES Declines, Raising Concerns Over Innovation Potential

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Britain’s participation in the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the world’s largest technology trade fair, has significantly decreased in recent years, according to Gary Shapiro, CEO of the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), which organizes the event.

Shapiro expressed disappointment over the UK’s reduced engagement at the show, calling it “a shame” and noting that it “doesn’t make sense” given the country’s ongoing potential in technological innovation. He highlighted that other European nations, such as France and the Netherlands, had a stronger presence in Eureka Park, the section of CES dedicated to start-ups. He even noted that Ukraine had a more visible presence at the event than the UK, adding that the British government no longer provides the same level of support it once did for such international events.

CES, held annually in Las Vegas, draws thousands of exhibitors and around 400,000 visitors. It is a major global platform for the latest in technology, attracting both industry giants like Microsoft and a wide array of smaller start-ups. This year, only 41 UK companies are scheduled to attend the event, including BT Group’s incubation arm, Etc, healthtech company Elvie, and location-based service provider what3words.

The decline in UK attendance stands in stark contrast to 2019, when over 100 British firms participated under the leadership of then-International Trade Secretary Liam Fox. During that year’s show, eight UK companies won innovation awards, and the government touted “millions of pounds worth of deals” signed as a result. Shapiro described it as “crazy” that the UK no longer places as much focus on CES, considering the historic ties between the two countries.

“We are the largest technology event in the world by far,” Shapiro emphasized, noting that CES attracts over 50,000 international visitors and remains the largest business event in the United States.

Experts are now questioning whether the UK’s reduced presence at CES signals a broader shift in its tech industry, particularly given the current climate of innovation and international collaboration. Despite the decline in UK attendance, CES continues to serve as a vital venue for tech companies to showcase their innovations to a global audience, sparking both concern and calls for greater investment in the UK’s presence at future events.

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HMRC Launches New Disclosure Service for R&D Tax Relief Overclaims

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HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has introduced a new disclosure service for businesses that have unintentionally overclaimed research and development (R&D) tax relief and failed to correct their returns. This move is part of the government’s ongoing efforts to combat misuse of the scheme, which has reportedly cost the Treasury over £1 billion in lost revenues.

The initiative targets companies that may have overstated their R&D expenditure in good faith, rather than those engaged in deliberate fraud. It follows a significant rise in HMRC investigations into questionable R&D claims, with the total amount of tax under review reaching £641 million this year, according to the department’s latest annual report.

R&D tax credits are designed to encourage businesses to invest in innovative projects, offering financial support for qualifying activities. However, the generosity of the scheme has also made it a target for fraudulent claims and organised criminal activity, with an estimated £1 in every £4 of the relief being lost to abuse in 2020-21.

Dawn Register, a tax dispute resolution partner at BDO, emphasized that companies now have various options to rectify their tax affairs. She noted that many “unscrupulous ‘claims’ agents” have taken advantage of the R&D tax credit system in recent years. “If a company now realises its past claims were ‘speculative’, a voluntary disclosure is definitely the best course of action,” she advised.

The new disclosure service is aimed at businesses that may have inadvertently overclaimed and wish to come forward voluntarily to amend their tax returns. HMRC has made clear that it is focusing on companies that may have made honest mistakes, but the service also acts as a deterrent to those who may attempt to exploit the system in the future.

As part of its crackdown on the misuse of the R&D tax relief scheme, HMRC has been stepping up its investigations and is continuing to scrutinize claims more closely. The department’s report highlighted the growing concerns surrounding the scheme’s integrity, and the new disclosure service is seen as a vital step in addressing these challenges.

For businesses looking to rectify overclaims, HMRC’s service provides a streamlined route to amend their returns and reduce potential penalties. The government is also urging companies to take responsibility for their claims, ensuring that they remain compliant with tax regulations and avoid any potential future disputes.

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Train Passengers Face Five Months of Disruption as RMT Announces Sunday Strikes on West Coast Main Line

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Train passengers on the West Coast Main Line are facing up to five months of disruption, as the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union has confirmed a series of Sunday strikes set to begin on 12 January and run until 25 May. The strikes follow the rejection of Avanti West Coast’s latest pay offer, with over 80% of train managers voting against the proposal in a recent referendum.

Avanti West Coast, which operates high-speed services between London, the North West, and Scotland, has warned that the industrial action will result in “significant disruption” for customers. The company expressed disappointment over the vote outcome, claiming it had made a “very reasonable revised offer” to resolve the ongoing dispute. The dispute primarily concerns rest day working, particularly on Sundays, and a proposed “new technology payment” related to scanning electronic tickets.

The RMT, led by Mick Lynch, had suspended planned strikes just before Christmas after Avanti put forward a revised proposal. However, union leaders have now opted to resume and extend the industrial action, citing the company’s failure to deliver a fair deal. The core issue remains the company’s request for guards to work on rostered rest days, including Sundays, to cover staffing shortages and prevent timetable disruptions.

Avanti, which has been under fire for poor punctuality, was the worst-performing train operator between July and September, with only 41% of services arriving on time, compared to a national average of 67%. Despite this, the franchise narrowly avoided nationalisation after reporting some improvements. However, it continues to face scrutiny from the government, which ultimately controls its funding.

Industry observers suggest that the RMT may be leveraging its position to secure a more favorable deal from the Treasury, given Avanti’s heavy reliance on public funds. The union’s decision to escalate the dispute with five months of planned strikes highlights the ongoing instability in the UK’s rail sector, raising concerns for both businesses and commuters.

The strike action is expected to severely impact travellers on key routes, with long-distance services between major cities likely to be the hardest hit. As the dispute continues, passengers are urged to plan their journeys in advance and expect possible delays and cancellations.

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