Blinken Skips Israel in Middle East Visit Amid Doubts Over Ceasefire Deal

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has departed for Egypt on Tuesday, marking the first time since the October 7 attacks that he has visited the Middle East without stopping in Israel. Blinken’s visit, set to last for the next few days, comes amid growing skepticism that a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas can be finalized before President Joe Biden’s term ends.

Traditionally, Blinken’s visits to Israel have been a platform to press the Israeli government on key issues related to the conflict, including negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has often dismissed these talks, leading to limited progress.

The State Department announced that Blinken’s trip will focus on discussions with Egyptian officials about efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, secure the release of hostages, alleviate Palestinian suffering, and enhance regional security. Blinken is also scheduled to co-chair the U.S.-Egypt Strategic Dialogue with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, aiming to strengthen bilateral relations and foster economic and cultural ties.

Despite Egypt’s crucial role in the ceasefire negotiations, expectations for a major breakthrough are low. The key obstacle remains the political will of Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, with skepticism that either side is committed to reaching a deal. US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield emphasized that achieving an agreement ultimately hinges on the political resolve of both parties.

While Blinken is in Egypt, the families of US hostages held by Hamas will be in Washington, DC, intensifying their push for a resolution. However, the timeline for presenting a new US proposal to both sides remains uncertain. Earlier statements from CIA Director Bill Burns suggested that a detailed proposal was imminent, but recent developments have cast doubt on its progress.

The US has accused Hamas of introducing new demands following the recent execution of six hostages, though these demands have not been publicly disclosed. Netanyahu has also been criticized for adding new conditions to the negotiations. Previous agreements and proposals have been undermined by conflicting statements and actions from both sides.

In recent statements, Blinken noted that the remaining issues in the negotiations are challenging but resolvable. However, he acknowledged that progress has been slow and that the final stages of negotiations are often the most difficult.

As of now, there are no imminent plans for President Biden’s national security advisers to present an updated proposal, signaling a potential stall in talks. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby has expressed cautious optimism, acknowledging the ongoing efforts but admitting that the outcome remains uncertain.