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UK Car Production Faces Significant Decline Amid Export Challenges

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Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reveals a sharp decline in UK car production, with both domestic and export markets facing significant downturns. Production for the UK market fell by 20.8% in September compared to the previous year, while exports dropped by 20.6%. This decline follows a particularly strong September 2022, which marked the best month for UK car production since 2020, making the current year-on-year comparison even more pronounced.

Despite the September downturn, overall production for the UK market has seen a year-to-date increase of 6.5%. However, this growth is overshadowed by a steep 14.4% decrease in exports, leading to an overall production decline of 10.2% for 2024, with 592,862 units produced thus far.

Challenges in Overseas Markets

The export slump is particularly evident in several key overseas markets. Shipments to China, a major destination for UK car exports, fell by 23.1% in September as the country grapples with an economic slowdown. While China’s GDP grew by 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, it fell short of the government’s target of 5%, impacting demand for imported goods, including vehicles. In response, Beijing has implemented measures aimed at stimulating growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Similarly, exports to the EU, which is the UK’s largest market for cars, experienced a significant decline, dropping by 28.6% in September to 26,825 units. This decrease coincides with weaker car sales across the European bloc, with the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reporting an 18.3% drop in EU car sales in August, the lowest in three years. Major markets such as Germany, France, and Italy all experienced double-digit declines.

On a more positive note, exports to the US rose by 24.6% in September, totaling 8,210 units and accounting for 16% of total UK car shipments.

Transitioning to Electric Vehicles

The decline in production has largely been attributed to car manufacturers retooling their factories to focus on electric and hybrid vehicle production. This shift aligns with the UK’s goal of phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Notably, nearly a third of all cars produced in the UK in September were battery electric, plug-in hybrid, or hybrid models, underscoring the industry’s transition toward greener technologies.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, characterized the production declines as “short-term” and anticipated. He emphasized the need for “the necessary industrial and market conditions” to stimulate growth. Hawes urged the government to leverage the upcoming Autumn Budget and industrial strategy to enhance business confidence, attract investment, and secure the competitiveness of the UK automotive sector.

Despite the production challenges, the automotive industry remains the UK’s largest exporter of manufactured goods. The sector accounted for 13.9% of total exports in the first half of 2024, highlighting its critical role in the UK economy. As manufacturers pivot towards zero-emission vehicles, they will depend heavily on supportive government policies and investment to maintain their global competitiveness and meet the growing demand for electric cars.

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HMRC Reports £24 Billion Increase in Tax Receipts, Boosting Government Finances

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HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has reported a significant rise in tax receipts, marking a positive development for the government following recent budget criticisms. According to leading audit and business advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, total tax receipts have increased by £24 billion over the past year compared to the previous 12-month period.

Tom Goddard, Senior Associate at Blick Rothenberg, noted that the growth in tax receipts has been consistent, despite a slight dip in August where receipts were almost £1 billion lower than in August 2023. He stated, “Total tax receipts continue to grow year on year, with an increase of £24 billion over the last 12 months. This offers some much-needed financial optimism for the government after a challenging budget that left many concerned about the economy.”

The latest figures show that total tax collected in the past year has now surpassed £842 billion and is on track to reach the £850 billion mark by December, traditionally a strong month for revenue collection.

Income tax has been a major contributor to the increase, with an approximate 8% year-on-year rise in receipts. This growth outpaces the current Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rate of 2.3%, which itself rose by 0.6% in the past month. Goddard explained, “The rise in wages, particularly for the UK’s lowest earners, is continuing to drive higher tax receipts. Labour’s commitment to maintaining the national living wage and freezing income tax thresholds and personal allowances until 2028/29 will bring even more people into higher tax bands.”

Goddard further highlighted the potential future impact of these policies. “Labour’s stance on income tax thresholds and National Insurance contributions will not affect the tax take until after April 2025, but the groundwork is already being laid for a sustained increase in tax revenue in the coming years.”

On the topic of inheritance tax, which has also drawn attention in recent discussions, Goddard pointed out that it contributes a relatively modest portion to HMRC’s overall receipts. Over the last year, inheritance tax accounted for just under £8 billion, or approximately 0.9% of total receipts. He added that any changes to Agricultural Property Relief (APR) and Business Property Relief (BPR) will not impact revenues until April 2026, and the effects of inheritance tax changes may not be seen until November 2026.

The boost in tax receipts comes at a crucial time, providing the government with some financial breathing room amidst ongoing economic challenges.

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Santander UK Sets Aside £295 Million Over Mis-Sold Car Loans Amid Growing Industry Scandal

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Santander UK has set aside £295 million to potentially compensate customers affected by the mis-selling of car loans, as the controversy surrounding the motor finance industry continues to escalate. The bank’s provision comes amid concerns that the mis-selling scandal could lead to a redress bill of up to £30 billion, with Santander’s move contributing to nearly £1 billion in compensation provisions across the industry so far.

The issue stems from a wide-ranging review by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) into potentially unfair commissions in motor finance deals, which has prompted several lenders to set aside funds. Santander’s decision follows a landmark Court of Appeal ruling last month that expanded the scope of the issue and raised the possibility of mass redress for consumers.

The Court of Appeal judgment significantly widened the legal requirements around commission disclosures in motor finance agreements. The ruling found that any commission not properly disclosed or consented to by the borrower was unlawful, making lenders liable for repaying affected customers. This shift in legal interpretation has sent shockwaves through the industry, with lenders revising their practices and temporarily suspending some operations.

Santander’s provision, disclosed in its third-quarter figures, includes estimates for operational and legal costs, as well as potential compensation. The bank acknowledged significant uncertainties regarding the extent of any misconduct, stating that the financial impact could be either higher or lower than the amount set aside. The decision to make provisions follows growing expectations that lenders will be forced to compensate customers due to these mis-selling practices.

The provision also contributed to a sharp decline in Santander UK’s pre-tax profits, which dropped to £143 million for the three months ending in September, down from £558 million during the same period last year. The bank joins other major lenders, including Lloyds Banking Group, which has set aside £450 million for similar issues.

The controversy began in early 2021 when the FCA banned discretionary commissions, which were linked to the interest rates customers paid on loans. The commission arrangements were seen as encouraging dealers to sell more expensive credit to customers. The FCA’s subsequent investigation into these practices has sparked consumer complaints, leading to a review of contracts dating back to 2007.

The Court of Appeal ruling in October compounded the issue, calling into question the adequacy of current FCA regulations. Critics, including the head of the Finance & Leasing Association, have argued that the lack of regulatory clarity allowed the court to intervene, exacerbating confusion in the market. As the legal and financial consequences unfold, the industry awaits further clarity from the Supreme Court, which may ultimately decide the future of compensation claims.

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Motor Finance Scandal Could Cost Lenders Up to £30 Billion, Warns Moody’s

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A growing scandal over mis-sold motor finance could result in compensation bills of up to £30 billion for lenders, according to a warning from credit rating agency Moody’s. This latest estimate raises concerns that the issue could rival the scale of the payment protection insurance (PPI) scandal, which ultimately cost UK firms around £50 billion in redress.

The impact of the scandal may be more severe for smaller, specialist lenders, such as Close Brothers, Aldermore, Investec, and the financing arms of Ford and Volkswagen. While larger banks like Lloyds Banking Group, Barclays, and Santander UK may be better positioned to absorb the costs, Moody’s cautioned that these smaller institutions could face a “more significant hit to earnings and capitalisation.”

The motor finance industry has been under growing scrutiny since the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) banned discretionary commissions in car loan deals in early 2021. These commissions, paid by lenders to car dealers or credit brokers for arranging finance, were seen as unfair, as they incentivised higher interest rates for borrowers.

The ban followed increasing consumer complaints about the commissions, leading the FCA to launch a comprehensive review in January, examining such payments dating back to April 2007. The ongoing investigation has prompted speculation that the regulator may soon require car loan providers to compensate affected borrowers.

In July, the FCA indicated that compensation for mis-sold finance was now “more likely than when we started our review.” Moody’s estimates the potential compensation costs could range from £8 billion to £21 billion for the industry.

The situation worsened last month following a Court of Appeal ruling, which determined that any undisclosed commission paid to a borrower was unlawful, making lenders liable to repay the money. This ruling applies to all types of commission, not just discretionary payments, and could add up to £9 billion to the compensation bill.

The judgment has caused turmoil in the industry, with some lenders halting car loan operations to ensure compliance. Close Brothers and Aldermore, central to the ruling, are planning to appeal to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Santander UK has delayed its third-quarter results to assess the financial impact of the judgment, with figures expected to be released Wednesday.

Uncertainty surrounds the scope of the ruling, with speculation that it could extend to other forms of consumer finance, which would amplify the potential fallout for lenders. Moody’s warned that a broader application of the judgment could have a “significantly more negative impact.”

So far, most banks and car finance arms have not set aside funds to cover potential compensation, with Lloyds Banking Group being one of the few to make provisions, earmarking £450 million. The scale of potential compensation payments has raised concerns about the stability of smaller lenders and the wider impact on the UK’s financial sector.

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