The war in Ukraine may be approaching a pivotal moment as former U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for a controversial peace plan that would see Ukraine cede Crimea and other occupied territories to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire.
CNN reported Friday that Trump has grown frustrated with the difficulty of fulfilling his promise to end the war swiftly. His approach reportedly involves pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the loss of Crimea, the peninsula Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. Trump has even suggested the U.S. could formally recognize Crimea as Russian territory, a move that would break long-standing American commitments under international law.
Russia currently occupies nearly 20% of Ukraine, territory it would largely retain under the emerging U.S. proposal. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday to discuss the plan, while Ukrainian officials have been meeting with European and American diplomats in London to propose an alternative: a ceasefire first, followed by negotiations.
Both Trump and Zelensky are expected to attend the Pope’s funeral in Rome this weekend, raising speculation about whether a breakthrough might occur or whether the effort will collapse.
Hostilities continue on the ground. A Russian general was killed in a car bomb attack near Moscow, and Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian cities persist, despite Trump publicly urging Putin to “STOP” via social media.
Trump has stated openly that he believes Crimea should remain with Russia, telling Time magazine that “everybody understands” Crimea has long been under Russian influence. However, Zelensky has consistently rejected any deal that would forfeit Ukrainian territory. Some Ukrainian officials, including Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, have hinted that reluctantly giving up Crimea could be considered for the sake of “temporary peace.”
The U.S. recognizing Crimea as Russian would breach the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which America pledged to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for Kyiv giving up its nuclear weapons. Critics warn that such a move would fundamentally undermine the international order, setting a dangerous precedent for future territorial aggression.
If the U.S. withdraws support, it remains unclear how far that withdrawal would go. Ukraine, while heavily reliant on U.S. military and intelligence aid, has developed stronger domestic capabilities and maintains significant European backing. Analysts say that Ukraine would continue fighting even without American assistance.
Meanwhile, Europe, especially Germany, is stepping up its efforts to bolster Ukraine. Experts believe that while Europe cannot immediately replace U.S. support, a longer-term shift toward European-led aid is already underway, driven in part by the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s stance.
Whether this moment leads to peace or prolongs the conflict could be decided in the days ahead.
