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British Firms Optimistic About 2025, Expecting Revenue Growth and Increased Hiring

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British companies are showing increased optimism for the start of 2025, with new surveys suggesting that many expect higher turnover and increased hiring, providing a boost to Labour’s goal of rejuvenating the country’s sluggish economic growth.

Surveys conducted by Lloyds and KPMG reveal that 70% of firms are anticipating revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025. This marks an improvement in sentiment compared to the same period last year. Lloyds, which polled 1,200 companies, found that nearly three-quarters of respondents are projecting higher profits over the next 12 months. Of those, one in five expects revenues to increase by more than 10%, while a quarter forecast a rise of between 6% and 10%.

The financial services sector is also displaying confidence, with two-thirds of the 160 financial leaders surveyed by KPMG expressing optimism about the government’s new financial services strategy. Despite challenges such as the looming increase in employers’ national insurance contributions from April, the sector is bullish on Labour’s plans to boost competitiveness and attract foreign investment. “Financial services is the backbone of the UK economy,” said Karim Haji, global and UK head of financial services at KPMG. Haji also noted that half of the firms surveyed plan to recruit more staff in 2025.

However, some hurdles remain. A quarter of respondents to the KPMG survey cited higher national insurance costs as a potential barrier to hiring, while a third warned that difficulties in finding skilled candidates could also impede expansion.

Despite these positive forecasts, official data showed that the UK’s economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2024 after a strong start to the year, as concerns over high interest rates and global uncertainties continue to weigh on growth. Still, many economists predict that the UK will avoid a recession, with anticipated interest rate cuts next year and increased government spending in healthcare and local government. Traders are forecasting four cuts to the Bank of England’s base rate, potentially reducing it to 3.75%, which would ease borrowing costs for businesses.

In contrast to the optimism seen in the Lloyds and KPMG surveys, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported that its members’ growth expectations for early 2025 remain at their lowest point since November 2022, citing ongoing uncertainty.

Despite these mixed outlooks, a fifth of the firms surveyed by Lloyds plan to hire new staff and invest in AI or digital tools, while a quarter aim to raise wages and upskill existing employees. Haji emphasized that further clarity on the government’s competitiveness strategy in 2025 will be key for financial services firms to effectively plan and attract foreign capital.

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UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Rising Food and Travel Costs

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UK inflation rose to 3% in January, up from 2.5% in December, marking the fastest pace of price growth in 10 months, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The increase was driven by higher food prices, air fares, and private school fees, adding pressure to household budgets already stretched by the cost-of-living crisis.

Food Prices Continue to Climb

Grocery staples saw significant price hikes, with items like olive oil and lamb surging by 17% and 16% respectively over the past year. Essentials such as meat, eggs, cereals, and butter also became noticeably more expensive.

Consumers are bracing for further cost increases, as energy, water, and council tax bills are set to rise in April. The situation has left many struggling to keep up with daily expenses. Gaby Cowley, a young mother, told the BBC that her weekly grocery bill has nearly doubled in the last three years, highlighting the mounting pressure on household finances.

Private School Fees and Air Fares Add to Inflationary Pressures

A key factor behind January’s jump was the introduction of VAT on private school fees, which took effect on 1 January. The ONS reported that this one-off policy change triggered a 13% rise in fees, significantly contributing to the inflation figure.

Meanwhile, air fares also played a role in keeping inflation elevated. While flight prices typically dip in January, this year’s decline was less pronounced than usual, meaning travel costs remained higher than in previous years.

Impact on Interest Rates and Economic Policy

The inflation rate was higher than expected, leading to speculation over whether the Bank of England may slow the pace of interest rate cuts. With inflation still above the Bank’s 2% target, some economists believe policymakers could take a more cautious approach to monetary easing.

Former Bank of England policymaker Professor Jonathan Haskel questioned whether the latest spike is a sign of more inflation to come or a temporary blip that could be overlooked when setting future policy.

Treasury Minister James Murray acknowledged that the road to lower inflation could be “bumpy” but insisted government policies would “kick-start” economic growth. Meanwhile, both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats blamed Labour’s tax and spending policies for the latest inflation rise, with Lib Dem leader Ed Davey warning of a ‘new era of stagflation’ if economic growth fails to keep pace with rising prices.

What’s Next?

Despite concerns, analysts such as Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics believe the inflation jump is “uncomfortable” for the Bank of England but not enough to halt interest rate cuts entirely. However, the risk of rising wages and higher household bills could keep inflation elevated in the months ahead, making it a key issue for both policymakers and the public.

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Scottish Public Sector Pay Rises Outpace Rest of UK, Raising Budget Concerns

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Public sector workers in Scotland have received significantly higher pay increases than their counterparts elsewhere in the UK, placing added strain on the Scottish Government’s budget, according to new research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

The analysis reveals that Scottish state employees’ wages have risen by 5% above inflation since 2019, while public sector workers in the rest of the UK have seen no real-terms increase. This wage growth has coincided with a rapid expansion of the Scottish public sector workforce, further increasing financial pressure on Holyrood.

Rising Costs and Expanding Workforce

Since 2017, the number of public sector employees in Scotland has grown by 11%, equating to an additional 56,000 workers. As a result, the Scottish Government’s annual wage bill has soared to £27 billion, with state employment now accounting for 22% of Scotland’s total workforce, compared to 17% in England.

The IFS report highlights several public sector roles where Scottish salaries outstrip those elsewhere in the UK:

  • Newly qualified teachers in Scotland earn £33,594, roughly £2,000 more than the £31,650 offered in most of England.
  • Newly qualified nurses in Scotland start on £31,892, compared with £29,970 in large parts of England.

Concerns Over Fiscal Sustainability

Jonathan Cribb, an economist at the IFS, warned that the increased spending may not be delivering proportional benefits in staff retention or productivity.

“Scotland has not only increased the number of public sector workers more quickly than other parts of the UK, it has also increased their pay more quickly,” Cribb noted. “While these are reasonable priorities, they add to the Scottish Government’s fiscal challenges, given that funding from the UK Government will not reflect these Scotland-specific decisions.”

With Scotland’s block grant from Westminster fixed, higher pay and an expanded workforce have left Holyrood with difficult choices about how to fund public services in the long term.

Political Backlash

Critics argue that the spending increases are unsustainable and not improving public services at the rate taxpayers would expect.

Craig Hoy, a Scottish Conservative MSP, described the situation as “frankly unaffordable” and accused the Scottish National Party (SNP) of failing to control spending.

“There’s been no attempt by the SNP to rein in spending, to tackle waste on an industrial scale, or to improve public services,” Hoy said.

With Scotland’s budget already under pressure, the debate over public sector pay, government spending, and the sustainability of Scotland’s finances looks set to intensify in the months ahead.

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Vivienne Westwood CEO Under Fire Over Homophobic Bullying Allegations

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The Vivienne Westwood fashion house is facing intense scrutiny following an independent investigation that upheld multiple allegations of homophobic bullying against its chief executive, Carlo D’Amario.

The findings, confirmed in June 2023 by employment barrister Paul Livingston, revealed that D’Amario repeatedly used homophobic slurs, bullied employees, and discriminated against staff based on their sexuality. Despite the findings, D’Amario remains in his position, while the complainant who initially raised the grievance has since left the company.

A Disconnect Between Image and Reality?

The allegations have sparked concerns about whether the progressive values championed by Dame Vivienne Westwood—a staunch advocate for LGBT+ rights and gender expression in fashion—have endured within her company.

While Vivienne Westwood Ltd has publicly embraced queer culture, including a recent collaboration with non-binary singer Sam Smith, the investigation’s findings suggest a disconnect between the brand’s external messaging and its internal leadership culture.

The Investigation and Findings

The allegations against D’Amario emerged when a gay employee filed an internal grievance in 2023, prompting the company to commission an independent probe. Eight witnesses were interviewed, and the investigation upheld five of the accusations, concluding that D’Amario had likely breached employment law.

According to the report, D’Amario frequently used homophobic nicknames for the employee, such as “Mary Poppins,” “Mary Fairy,” and “Homo Pomo.” One staff member recalled that D’Amario often used the term “homo pomo” in a way they found offensive.

Witnesses also reported that he criticized store displays for looking “too gay”, a comment that left some employees “horrified.”

When questioned, D’Amario denied all allegations, claiming that sexuality was “the last thing in [his] brain” and that any misunderstandings were due to language barriers. However, the investigator found his explanations “not persuasive.”

Further Allegations and Leadership Criticism

Beyond homophobic slurs, witnesses alleged that D’Amario made disparaging remarks about gay employees, including stating, “All these gay men in the company… you can’t trust them.” He also reportedly referred to well-dressed employees as part of a “gay parade.”

Allegations of racist remarks also surfaced, with one staff member claiming that D’Amario once told them, “I’m not racist, but all your clients are members of the mafia.”

The controversy over D’Amario’s leadership escalated in November 2023, when Cora Corré, Vivienne Westwood’s granddaughter, resigned from the company. In her resignation letter, Corré accused D’Amario of misusing Westwood’s designs, obstructing charitable fundraising efforts, and even bullying Dame Vivienne Westwood before her death in 2022.

She further alleged that Westwood had been unhappy with D’Amario’s leadership and had wanted him removed from the company. The fashion house did not respond to these claims at the time.

Vivienne Westwood Ltd’s Response and Next Steps

The findings of the Dobbs review determined that D’Amario’s behavior violated the company’s equality policy. Additionally, it revealed that Westwood and D’Amario had not completed mandatory diversity training.

Despite this, Vivienne Westwood Ltd has taken no public disciplinary action. Financial records show that D’Amario earned nearly £500,000 in 2023, further fueling criticism over the company’s lack of accountability.

The fashion house has repeatedly declined to comment on whether any action will be taken against D’Amario, leaving serious questions about its commitment to the values it publicly promotes.

With growing scrutiny on workplace culture and leadership accountability in the fashion industry, the brand now faces a defining moment: will it continue to back its CEO, or take decisive action to uphold the rebellious, inclusive legacy of Vivienne Westwood?

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