The UK’s statistics watchdog has ordered the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to urgently reform its data collection methods following concerns over the reliability of economic figures that influence key government and Bank of England decisions. The intervention comes amid growing frustration from economists, policymakers, and MPs over delayed publications and issues with data quality.
The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), responsible for overseeing the quality of official data, has given the ONS a four-week deadline to submit a comprehensive improvement plan aimed at restoring confidence in its economic surveys. The move follows widespread criticism of missed publication deadlines for essential data, such as trade figures, producer price inflation, and services inflation, as well as long-standing issues with the Labour Force Survey, a key indicator of the UK jobs market.
One of the most significant concerns is the sharp decline in response rates to the Labour Force Survey, which has fallen to below 20% — a steep drop from 50% a decade ago. This reduction has severely undermined the reliability of data that is crucial for understanding employment trends, productivity, and wage growth. As a result, economists are raising alarms that decisions based on flawed statistics could have significant consequences for households and businesses.
Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the House of Commons Treasury Committee, warned that the lack of accurate data could lead to misguided decisions that negatively impact people’s lives. “Wrong decisions made by these institutions can mean constituents defaulting on mortgages or losing their livelihoods,” she said. “The Treasury cannot confidently assess employment levels, and the Bank of England may be making interest rate decisions without an accurate picture of the economy.”
The ONS’s statistics are essential for guiding major decisions, including setting interest rates and determining fiscal policies, which can affect millions of people. The growing concerns about the accuracy of these data have raised fears that critical decisions may be based on incomplete or incorrect information.
While the OSR acknowledged that the ONS had made some progress in improving survey response rates and integrating new data sources, including VAT records and rail and rental prices, it highlighted ongoing challenges in adapting to administrative data. These problems have been exacerbated by outdated practices and insufficient investment in survey collection, according to the OSR.
In a statement, the ONS recognized the severity of the situation, stating, “We recognise and share concerns about data quality and are addressing these as a matter of urgency. Our new strategic business plan includes a renewed focus on our core economic and population statistics.”
The OSR has demanded that the ONS prioritize funding and improve data quality over the next three months, with a final assessment expected this autumn. The outcome of this review will be crucial in determining whether the credibility of the UK’s official statistics can be restored and whether the policies based on these figures can continue to be trusted.
