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UK Businesses Face Potential Tariff Hike Under Trump’s Proposed Trade Plan
Concerns are growing among UK businesses over potential tariff increases following former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new trade policy. Trump has instructed his team to develop a system of “reciprocal tariffs,” which would factor in Value Added Tax (VAT) when determining levies on imports. This move could have significant consequences for British exporters.
Under the proposed plan, tariffs on imports to the US would mirror those imposed on American goods abroad. While the UK was previously considered less exposed to tariffs compared to other nations, the inclusion of VAT in the calculations has sparked fresh concerns about the financial impact on British trade.
Analysts predict that UK businesses could face tariffs of 20% or more, bringing them in line with those expected for the European Union. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has warned that industries such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and food and drink could be particularly vulnerable to the proposed changes.
Trump’s plan, announced by the White House on Thursday, is part of a broader strategy to counter what he calls “unfair or harmful acts, policies, or practices” by trading partners. The former president has long advocated for tariffs as a means to address trade imbalances, though both the UK and US claim to maintain trade surpluses with each other based on different data collection methods.
One of the most contentious aspects of the proposed tariff system is Trump’s characterization of VAT as an “unfair, discriminatory, or extraterritorial tax.” The UK applies a 20% VAT on most goods and services, irrespective of whether they are produced domestically or imported. Some analysts warn that if tariffs are adjusted based on VAT rates, UK exporters could face duties as high as 21%.
George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, suggested that European nations would be among the hardest hit by such a system. Meanwhile, William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, acknowledged that while the UK exports fewer goods to the US than some other nations, the proposed changes could still create added costs and uncertainty for businesses.
Paul Ashworth, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, argued that VAT is generally considered a neutral tax as it applies equally to all goods sold in the UK. However, one of Trump’s advisers has suggested that VAT disadvantages American businesses, as the US relies on lower state-level sales taxes instead of a national VAT system.
Legal experts caution that the term “reciprocal tariffs” may not mean a direct match of tariffs between nations. Caroline Ramsay, head of international trade at law firm TLT, clarified that the US is likely to determine tariff rates based on its own assessment of fair trade rather than directly mirroring UK tariffs.
As uncertainty looms, business leaders are urging the UK government to engage in negotiations with Trump’s team to avoid the risk of escalating trade tensions. Bain stressed the importance of diplomatic engagement to prevent a damaging cycle of retaliatory tariffs.
Senior UK government minister Pat McFadden called for a measured response, advising businesses to wait and assess whether the proposals materialize before reacting.
With UK-US trade relations in a state of flux, British businesses are preparing for potential cost increases and disruptions to transatlantic commerce. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these proposed tariffs become a reality and how the UK responds to protect its economic interests.
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Amazon MGM Takes Creative Reins of James Bond Franchise Amid Casting Buzz
In a landmark shift for the James Bond franchise, Amazon MGM has partnered with long-time producers Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli to oversee the future of 007. While all three entities retain co-ownership of the Bond intellectual property, Amazon MGM will now lead creative decisions, marking a significant departure from its previously limited role.
The move follows Amazon’s $8.5 billion acquisition of MGM in 2021, which granted it partial ownership but little say in the franchise’s artistic direction. With Daniel Craig’s departure after 2021’s No Time to Die, speculation about the next James Bond has intensified. Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and executive chairman, fueled the debate by asking his followers on social media platform X, “Who’d you pick as the next Bond?” The overwhelming response highlighted British actor Henry Cavill as a fan favorite. Known for roles in Superman, The Witcher, and Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Cavill previously auditioned for the role in 2006’s Casino Royale but lost to Daniel Craig. Director Martin Campbell praised Cavill’s audition but deemed him too young at the time. Now in his early forties, Cavill’s age could be a factor if long-term commitments are considered.
Daniel Craig acknowledged Wilson and Broccoli’s contributions, telling Variety, “My respect, admiration, and love for Barbara and Michael remain constant and undiminished.” With Wilson stepping back and Broccoli expected to reduce her involvement, Amazon MGM gains greater creative control, raising questions about the franchise’s future direction.
Fan speculation continues to swirl around Cavill, alongside other contenders like Taron Egerton, Tom Hardy, and Idris Elba. While Amazon MGM has yet to announce a timeline or reveal casting decisions, industry watchers anticipate a new era that may extend beyond traditional films, potentially including spin-offs, series, and streaming exclusives. As the studio reshapes Bond’s future, audiences worldwide eagerly await the next chapter in the iconic spy saga.
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Global Hiring Slump Marks Longest Downturn in Decades, Says Hays CEO
The global job market is experiencing its longest downturn in over 20 years, according to Dirk Hahn, CEO of Hays, Britain’s largest listed recruitment firm. Hahn attributes the slump to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, which is deterring both employers and job seekers from making moves.
Hays, which employs nearly 7,000 consultants worldwide, reported weaker demand for temporary workers in early 2025, while demand for permanent roles—particularly in Europe—remains sluggish following a pre-Christmas dip. Countries such as France, the UK, Ireland, and Germany, Hays’s largest market, are feeling the pressure most acutely.
In the six months leading up to December, Hays reported a 15% drop in group net fees, falling to £496 million from £583.3 million the previous year. Pre-tax profits fell sharply by 67% to £9.1 million, compared to £27.6 million during the same period the prior year. Hays’s share price, already down 25% over the past year, dipped a further 1.8% on Thursday, closing at 71¾p and placing the company’s market value just below £1.2 billion. Despite declining profits, the company will maintain its interim dividend at 0.95p per share.
While the broader UK labor market has shown resilience with limited mass layoffs, businesses remain cautious about expanding their workforce. “Most companies have enough work to retain their current staff, but they’re not looking to increase headcount,” said James Hilton, Hays’s chief financial officer. “Many employees who received pay increases in recent years are not seeking new roles, creating a stalemate. However, over time, people will seek promotions or fresh challenges.”
Recruiters had anticipated a market recovery earlier this year, but Hahn now warns that the rebound may not materialize until 2026. In the meantime, Hays is focusing on its technology recruitment division—its most profitable segment—as it navigates the prolonged global hiring slowdown.
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UK Government Reports Lower-Than-Expected Budget Surplus in January
The UK government reported a budget surplus of £15.4 billion in January, falling short of economists’ forecasts of £21 billion and the £19 billion predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Despite January typically seeing a boost from self-assessment tax payments, the lower-than-expected figure has increased total borrowing for the financial year to £118.2 billion—over £11 billion more than the previous year.
The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 95.3 per cent, a level last observed in the 1960s. With the OBR set to release updated forecasts on March 26, there are concerns that the government may struggle to meet its goal of reducing the debt ratio by 2029. This could lead to potential spending cuts or tax hikes in the autumn budget.
Reduced debt-servicing costs helped boost January’s surplus, dropping from £9 billion in December to £6.5 billion. However, this was partially offset by a £6 billion one-off expense related to the government’s repurchase of military housing from private firm Annington.
Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, emphasized the government’s commitment to “economic stability and meeting our non-negotiable fiscal rules.” He also noted that a comprehensive spending review—the first of its kind in 17 years—is underway to ensure that public funds are used efficiently and aligned with national priorities.
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