In January, the prime ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan held a landmark meeting in the Ferghana Valley, aiming to foster regional cooperation and promote economic stability. The summit, held at the shared borders of the three countries, underscored their commitment to addressing long-standing issues such as border demarcation and resource management, with a focus on collaborative development.
The discussions come at a time of growing economic optimism in the region, as Uzbekistan’s Central Bank reported a significant 30% year-on-year increase in international remittances in 2024. Total remittances amounted to $14.8 billion, representing 12.9% of the country’s GDP. The United Kingdom, contributing $135 million, was among the key players, highlighting a rising interest in the region from British investors.
The Ferghana Valley, a vital agricultural hub positioned at the crossroads of important trade routes, offers vast potential for economic growth. Political agreements resulting from the summit aim to pave the way for increased investment, particularly in sectors such as hydropower, infrastructure, and construction. However, the case of Ulugbek Shadmanov, one of Uzbekistan’s leading entrepreneurs, casts a shadow over the country’s investment climate and underscores the importance of upholding the rule of law.
Shadmanov’s Arrest Raises Concerns for Investors
Shadmanov, the owner of United Cement Group (UCG), was arrested in Dubai in December 2024 and extradited to Uzbekistan, where he faces charges of illegal border crossing. These charges are widely viewed as politically motivated, raising alarms among the business community. His lawyer, Mark Agnifilo, has criticized the lack of legal transparency, pointing to violations of international norms and denial of legal counsel.
An independent investigation, led by human rights advocate Radha Stirling, has uncovered allegations of a staged assassination attempt aimed at discrediting Shadmanov, involving former Uzbek official Komil Alamjonov and several Russia-linked businessmen. Additionally, Shadmanov is accused of violating sanctions by allegedly exporting cement to Russia—an accusation that remains unsubstantiated, given the logistical challenges of such exports.
These developments have raised doubts about the reliability of Uzbekistan’s legal and political environment, which could discourage foreign investment in the region.
A Promising Future for the Ferghana Valley
Despite these challenges, the recent summit among the Central Asian leaders signals a positive outlook for the Ferghana Valley. Addressing key issues such as water resources and border disputes lays the foundation for long-term stability and growth. The region’s economic potential is significant, with remittance inflows continuing to rise, particularly from Russia, Kazakhstan, and the United States.
For the region to realize its full potential, however, it will need to ensure legal protections for entrepreneurs and establish transparent business practices. The Shadmanov case highlights the risks that political instability and a lack of judicial integrity pose to investors.
Nevertheless, the development of key infrastructure projects and the expansion of hydropower capacity offer hope for transforming the Ferghana Valley into a dynamic economic hub. With a collaborative approach from governments, businesses, and international partners, the region may overcome current challenges and thrive in the global economy.
