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Chancellor Rachel Reeves to Visit China for Key Economic Talks

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to visit China in January for the long-awaited resumption of the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue, a move that is being hailed as a crucial opportunity to strengthen economic ties between the two nations.

The talks, which had been on hiatus for six years, are seen as a pivotal moment for deepening trade and cooperation. Leading advisory firm Blick Rothenberg has urged Reeves to approach the dialogue with pragmatism to ensure meaningful outcomes for both countries.

Winnie Cao, Head of Blick Rothenberg’s China desk, welcomed the return of the dialogue, calling it “great news for both China and the UK.” She emphasized that a practical approach in these talks could not only enhance bilateral trade relations but also serve as a signal of broader international cooperation, potentially alleviating global tensions.

Cao highlighted several areas where both nations could benefit. For the UK, China’s provision of affordable electric vehicles and battery storage solutions could support the country’s net-zero goals. In turn, the UK offers Chinese businesses the opportunity to expand into a stable, growth-oriented market, especially as China’s domestic growth slows.

The potential for a closer economic relationship between the UK and China could align with Labour’s growth plans, according to Cao. She also noted that China’s role as one of the UK’s top trading partners might make it a more predictable ally than the US under President-elect Donald Trump, whose administration has hinted at using sanctions as a tool for economic compliance.

However, both sides are expected to approach the talks with caution. The UK’s National Security Law, which limits foreign investments, reflects concerns over foreign influence, particularly from China. Meanwhile, China’s delegation, led by He Lifeng, will likely be mindful of how strengthened UK-China ties are perceived by Washington.

Cao advised both nations to focus on their strengths in the negotiations. For the UK, this means capitalizing on China’s comprehensive supply chain for green technologies, while China should leverage the UK’s stable market as its companies look for growth opportunities abroad.

With global economic pressures increasing, Reeves’ ability to secure a balanced and strategic agreement could offer significant benefits for both nations. Her visit underscores the importance of pragmatic diplomacy in navigating uncertain times.

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Plans for UK “Digital Pound” Face Uncertainty Amid Growing Skepticism

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Plans for the introduction of a UK “digital pound” are facing significant challenges as Bank of England officials grow increasingly sceptical about the project. The idea of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), often referred to as “Britcoin,” was initially slated for a formal decision in 2025, with an expected launch by 2030. However, concerns surrounding privacy, costs, and persistent conspiracy theories are raising fresh doubts about whether the digital pound will ever come to fruition.

A digital pound would theoretically offer consumers a secure, electronic form of money, with transactions managed through smartphone apps and underpinned by the safety of central bank backing. However, some critics, including certain politicians and conspiracy theorists, fear that a CBDC could enable the government to monitor and control citizens’ spending. Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform Party, has warned that a digital pound could give the state “total control over our lives.”

These concerns, combined with the practical challenges of creating a national digital currency, have put the project in jeopardy. According to sources familiar with the discussions, Bank of England officials remain divided on whether the benefits of a digital pound outweigh its potential risks. The final decision will ultimately rest with Bank governor Andrew Bailey and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The global context is also complicating the UK’s plans. In the United States, lawmakers recently passed an “anti-surveillance” bill in the House of Representatives, aiming to block the launch of a digital dollar unless Congress explicitly authorizes it. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to make a decision by the end of 2025 on whether to proceed with the development of a digital euro, despite resistance from Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats, who are concerned about user privacy.

This hesitation reflects broader caution over CBDCs, particularly those intended for everyday use by retail customers. While the UK and European authorities initially viewed CBDCs as a necessary response to private stablecoins, such as Facebook’s now-defunct Libra, enthusiasm has waned due to technical and political challenges.

Despite growing skepticism over retail-focused digital currencies, the push for a “wholesale” CBDC, intended for use among commercial banks and financial institutions, remains strong. Policymakers believe that a wholesale CBDC could streamline interbank transactions and reduce systemic risks without raising the same privacy concerns.

A Bank of England spokesperson confirmed that work on the digital pound is still “ongoing,” with no formal decision yet made on whether to proceed. The spokesperson emphasized that, should a digital pound be introduced, it would be accompanied by primary legislation to safeguard user privacy and control over their funds.

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Middle-Class Parents Support VAT on Private School Fees, Says Education Secretary

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Middle-class parents have expressed support for the government’s decision to impose a 20% VAT charge on private school fees, according to Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson. Speaking ahead of the policy’s official launch this Wednesday, Phillipson highlighted that many families are increasingly “priced out” of independent education due to rising costs and are now seeking stronger state-run alternatives.

With some boarding schools charging upwards of £50,000 annually and the average private school fee now around £18,000, Phillipson argued that “pushy middle-class parents” can no longer afford such expenses. She believes this supports Labour’s position that removing tax breaks for private schools will generate an estimated £460 million for the 2024–25 financial year, a figure that could rise to £1.7 billion by 2029–30. The funds, she says, would support 6,500 new state teachers and provide additional mental health resources for students.

Despite opposition from private schools, which have seen their fees increase by 75% in real terms since 2000, officials at the Department for Education (DfE) predict the VAT hike will only reduce private school enrollment by 6%, with many pupils transferring to the state sector. Phillipson dismissed concerns over widespread closures as “scaremongering,” pointing to the smooth integration of pupils from Ukraine and Hong Kong into state schools without significant issues.

Private institutions are responding to the VAT change in different ways. Some, including prestigious schools like Eton and Westminster, are passing the full 20% charge onto parents. Others, such as Queen Ethelburga’s in York, are limiting fee increases to around 3%. Schools can reclaim VAT on certain expenses like capital projects and educational supplies, reducing their net VAT liability to approximately 15%. Phillipson emphasized that many private schools have “no good reason” to pass the full burden onto parents.

The Independent Schools Council has voiced concerns that the new tax, combined with increased employer national insurance contributions and the loss of charitable business rate relief, has left schools in a difficult financial position. For instance, Carrdus School in Oxfordshire announced it will close in July 2024 due to these mounting pressures. However, Phillipson maintains that the additional funding from the VAT will strengthen the state school system, calling it a “badge of honour” if the move leads to improved standards across the country.

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Government Contractors Shift Rising Labour Costs onto Treasury, Raising Concerns for Taxpayers

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Major government contractors are pushing the financial burden of rising national insurance (NI) contributions and higher wages onto the Treasury, raising concerns about the impact on taxpayers. Leading cleaning, facilities management, and construction companies, including Churchill Group, Mitie, and Mace, are negotiating with Whitehall to pass on the costs of April’s employment-related tax increases.

Starting in spring 2024, employers will see an increase in NI contributions from 13.8% to 15%, along with a rise in the national living wage from £11.44 to £12.21 per hour. While private-sector providers with commercial clients may be forced to trim their workforce or implement other cost-saving measures, public sector contractors are seeking to secure higher rates on their government contracts. Many of these companies have contract clauses that allow for price reviews if labour costs rise due to legislative changes, while others are renegotiating deals to protect slim profit margins.

Churchill Group, which provides cleaning services for train companies under the oversight of the Department for Transport, has confirmed it will raise rates to offset the increased wage and NI costs. Mitie, another major contractor, expects to recoup around 60% of its additional NIC costs, estimated at £35 million, through similar pass-through clauses. Mace, a leading construction firm, is set to open discussions with government departments to recover additional costs related to building and infrastructure projects, including hospitals.

Government sources say they have little choice but to agree to these higher contract rates, fearing that cutting back on public services would be detrimental. However, concerns are mounting that the rise in outsourced contract prices will create a wave of cost increases across various sectors, including the retail industry. The Treasury’s analysis suggests that major retailers, such as Tesco and Amazon, will also face significant additional costs due to the NI changes.

Business groups, including the British Retail Consortium, have warned that the extra labour costs could lead to job losses in the private sector. The sheer scale of the increases may force companies to reconsider their staffing needs. However, Paul Nowak, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, has dismissed these concerns, urging caution in accepting companies’ claims.

The Treasury remains confident that its budget will deliver economic stability, pointing to targeted business rate relief for the hospitality, retail, and leisure sectors, as well as a permanent lower business rate to be introduced in 2026. Despite the government’s assurances, taxpayers may ultimately feel the financial strain as contractors pass on these rising costs.

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