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UK Confidence Wanes Amid Concerns Over Labour’s Tax-Raising Budget

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Consumer and business confidence in the UK has declined following Labour’s recent budget, which includes significant tax hikes that have sparked concerns about rising costs, hiring prospects, and the country’s long-term economic growth.

Recent surveys show growing pessimism among British households and the services sector, undermining the government’s goal to boost economic growth to the highest levels in the G7 over the next five years. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that, in the wake of the budget announcement, consumer confidence dropped, with more households expressing concern about the economy than in previous months. This has led to little change in household spending, despite the upcoming holiday season, with many consumers maintaining a cautious approach to their finances.

The BRC’s survey found that households were only marginally more optimistic about their personal financial situations between October and November. The overall sentiment regarding the economy fell by two points, reaching -19, while savings intentions and spending plans remained largely unchanged.

In a separate survey, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) noted a sharp drop in confidence among businesses in the service sector, which accounts for about three-quarters of the UK economy. This marks the steepest decline in business optimism in two years, reversing a nine-month period of improving sentiment. Service-sector companies are particularly concerned about rising wage costs, which are expected to increase further with the government’s planned hike in employer national insurance contributions from April 2024.

Alpesh Paleja, interim deputy chief economist at the CBI, described the outlook as “not a pretty picture,” citing weaker hiring intentions and growing cost pressures as key concerns. The national insurance increase, which is expected to generate between £16 billion and £20 billion annually for the government, is seen as a major factor contributing to the negative sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) warned that the national insurance rise could slow the recovery in hiring, which had shown signs of improvement earlier this year. The REC’s latest survey found that hiring confidence surged in the months leading up to October, but the impending tax increase—particularly the rise in contributions for lower earners—could dampen business optimism going forward.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, also highlighted the impact of the tax hikes on the retail sector, estimating that national insurance increases could add £7 billion in costs. She urged the government to address the issue by ensuring the upcoming changes to business rates, set for 2026, provide meaningful relief for retailers.

As the UK grapples with these economic challenges, experts are calling for targeted government support to ensure that businesses can weather the rising costs and that hiring continues to recover.

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OECD Upgrades UK Growth Forecast, But Warns of Rising Debt and Inflation

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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK, crediting the government’s £70 billion-a-year public spending package spearheaded by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The OECD now expects the UK economy to grow by 0.9% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, significantly higher than its previous May forecasts of 0.4% and 1.0%.

However, the Paris-based organisation has cautioned that this growth is accompanied by rising public debt and persistent inflation. The UK’s upgrade contrasts with downgrades for France, Germany, and Italy, which are facing stagnation in the eurozone’s largest economies.

The OECD acknowledged that the UK’s growth is largely driven by an unprecedented increase in government expenditure, a strategy that has pushed the country’s debt to unsustainable levels. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 100% in the coming years. While the fiscal stimulus has provided a boost to growth, the OECD warned that it would keep inflation above the Bank of England’s 2% target for the next two years. This is primarily due to wage pressures and high public spending. Although interest rates are expected to fall to 3.5% by early 2026, monetary policy may remain tight for longer to address persistent price pressures.

Another concern raised by the OECD is the UK’s shrinking labour force, which has seen one of the largest post-pandemic contractions in workforce participation among OECD nations, second only to Costa Rica. The organisation called for reforms to the benefits system and increased childcare support to help encourage more people, particularly women, to return to work.

While Reeves welcomed the growth forecast upgrade, highlighting the UK as the fastest-growing European economy in the G7 over the next three years, the OECD emphasized the importance of balancing fiscal stimulus with sustainable debt management.

The Chancellor’s maiden Budget, funded by £40 billion in tax hikes and borrowing, also includes commitments to reform planning laws, improve childcare support, and overhaul welfare systems to boost productivity and living standards. However, critics have raised concerns about the long-term consequences of higher borrowing costs and structural deficits, which could potentially overshadow these short-term gains.

As the UK’s economy continues to recover, the OECD’s report serves as a reminder of the trade-offs between fiscal stimulus and long-term financial stability.

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BAE Systems to Recruit Record 2,400 Apprentices and Graduates in 2024

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BAE Systems, the UK’s largest defense company, has announced plans to recruit a record 2,400 apprentices, undergraduates, and graduates next year, marking a major step in its commitment to workforce development. This new intake will bring the total number of trainees across the FTSE 100 company to 6,500, making up around 15% of its UK workforce.

Known for building the UK’s nuclear submarines and fighter jets, BAE Systems currently employs 100,000 people worldwide. The company has increased its investment in skills development each year since the Covid-19 pandemic, with next year’s £230 million spend on education initiatives pushing its total investment in training to over £1 billion since 2020.

The funding will support a range of programs, including apprenticeships, graduate schemes, and upskilling opportunities for current staff. Additionally, BAE will continue backing outreach efforts, such as its third skills academy, which recently opened in Glasgow.

Charles Woodburn, CEO of BAE Systems, emphasized the importance of investing in talent to maintain the company’s competitive edge. “With thousands of roles open across the country and our exciting high-technology programs, there has never been a better time to embark on a career with us,” he said.

The company’s recruitment drive has garnered praise from government officials, with Defense Secretary John Healey calling BAE’s early careers initiatives crucial for strengthening national security and nurturing future industrial leaders. “This investment is a vote of confidence in the UK as a hub for highly skilled jobs and cutting-edge employment,” Healey remarked.

Diversity continues to be a priority for BAE Systems. Nearly a third of this year’s new apprentices are women, and one in three new graduates comes from an ethnic minority background. Francesca Di Mascio, 27, an electrical engineering apprentice at BAE, shared her experience: “This apprenticeship is a great opportunity to earn while you learn. For the first time, I feel truly valued in a business.”

BAE’s recruitment plans reflect a strong commitment to building a skilled and diverse workforce capable of meeting the evolving demands of the UK’s defense sector and beyond. The company’s investment in training aims to ensure that the next generation of workers is ready to tackle the challenges posed by high-tech defense and engineering fields.

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Young Professionals Leaving UK for Southern Europe, Revolut Co-Founder Warns

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Young professionals are increasingly choosing to leave the UK for sunnier climates and more favorable tax regimes in Southern Europe, according to Vlad Yatsenko, the billionaire co-founder of digital banking giant Revolut. This trend, he warns, could undermine Britain’s position as a global hub for talent, particularly in the competitive fintech sector.

Yatsenko, who co-founded Revolut in 2015, noted that many of the company’s employees are now using remote work options to relocate abroad. “The UK competes with Southern Europe now,” he said, adding that younger professionals who once flocked to London for career opportunities are now drawn to countries like Portugal and Italy, attracted by lower taxes, better financial incentives, and a desirable lifestyle.

Portugal, in particular, has become a hotspot for start-ups, with tax breaks designed to attract foreign talent and retain its own young workforce. Italy, meanwhile, has seen a surge in early-stage tech investments, with funding reaching $2 billion (£1.8 billion) in 2023. These developments have made Southern Europe an increasingly attractive alternative to the UK.

Yatsenko, originally from Ukraine and now based in London, urged the UK government to take proactive steps to retain talent. He pointed out that rival countries are creating environments that make it easier for professionals to thrive, warning that the UK could lose its competitive edge if it doesn’t respond to these challenges.

Despite his concerns, Yatsenko acknowledged that the UK remains an important market for fintech businesses. Revolut, headquartered in Canary Wharf, employs over 10,000 people globally and allows staff to work remotely or in a hybrid capacity, making it easier for employees to consider relocating without sacrificing their careers.

The exodus of talent is not limited to Revolut but reflects broader trends in the UK’s tech and finance sectors. Start-up founders have expressed concern that policy changes, such as the recent increase in capital gains tax, could discourage entrepreneurship and exacerbate the talent drain.

Revolut itself has been thriving, with plans to expand its offerings by introducing fully digital mortgages. The company’s growth, including a recent $45 billion valuation and over 50 million customers worldwide, underscores its success in adapting to the changing work environment.

However, as more professionals seek out opportunities abroad, the UK faces an urgent need to reassess its policies. Tax incentives in Portugal and Italy, along with their attractive lifestyles, are drawing young professionals away from the UK. The government’s ability to create a competitive environment will be key in retaining the talent needed to maintain the country’s status as a leader in innovation.

Yatsenko’s comments highlight the broader challenges facing the UK’s future as a talent hub, emphasizing the need for the government to act to ensure the UK remains a top destination for professionals and entrepreneurs.

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